Twentynine Palms, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

717
FXUS65 KVEF 060514
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1014 PM PDT Mon May 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures and thunderstorm activity
continue today for much of the area. Once this weather system moves
out, warmer and drier conditions are expected to take hold, with
well above average temperatures by the weekend.
&&


.UPDATE...It`s been a rare cool and wet day across the region,
especially considering the calendar reads May which is squarely
within the driest time of the year for our area.  Rainfall at Harry
Reid Airport in Las Vegas has totaled 0.35 inches for the day which
shattered the previous daily record of 0.04", and brings our monthly
total to 0.61 (as of 730pm), which pushes us into 7th place for
wettest Mays in Las Vegas`s record.  Another batch of moderate rain
and even some embedded thunder is currently moving across western
Clark County and may add to the totals observed through late this
evening.

Outside of the Las Vegas metro, a broad area of light rain is
currently drifting into central Mohave County and eastern San
Bernardino County, where some light rainfall totals of generally
0.25 inches or less have been fairly common.  The only areas that
managed to stay completely dry today have mainly been across our far
northwestern zones across Inyo, Esmeralda, and central Nye counties
where drier air exists and is further displaced from the low
currently spinning over Arizona.

Showers will hang on overnight but will tend to decrease in coverage
and intensity after midnight.  Some lingering instability and above
normal atmospheric moisture content will keep chances going one more
day across the eastern half of the forecast area, with a few
thunderstorms again possible.

-Outler-

&&


.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday Night.

The strong storm system that has brought considerable rain to the
area the past few days remains, bringing more rounds of showers
and thunderstorms for the eastern half of the CWA tonight into
Tuesday. Precipitation totals from the past 24 hours range from
0.1 to 0.25 inches in the Las Vegas Valley and parts of San
Bernardino County with higher amounts of 0.25 to 0.75 inches in
northern Mohave County. A daily record of 0.23 inches of rain fell
at Harry Reid Airport on Sunday. Instability will build across
Mohave, Clark, and Lincoln counties this afternoon with CAPE
values of 500-1000 J/kg bringing the chance of enhanced
convection, particularly in areas that experience clearing. While
the amount of atmospheric moisture is anomalous, greater than 200%
of normal for this time of year. May is a drier part of the year.
The 0.8 inches of PWAT on the 12Z sounding is stout enough to get
some good storms going, however, widespread flooding is unlikely.
Some areas will have ponding on the roadways in areas of bad
drainage. Locally, there may be higher rainfall amounts under
stronger convective cells.

Wind will remain light over much of the area outside of storm
activity. The exception will be Inyo, Esmeralda, and southern Nye
counties where gusty winds to 35 mph are possible this afternoon
with breezy conditions lasting through Tuesday.

As this system slowly meanders off to the east, its final act will
be to extend a lobe of vorticity advecting from the north across the
area on Tuesday. This will keep a chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms for Mohave county and eastern portions of Clark and
Lincoln counties lingering through Tuesday.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

Beyond Tuesday, a ridge builds into the area, bringing drier and
warmer conditions areawide. Temperatures will trend upward each day
through the rest of the week, topping out at 10-15 degrees above
normal by Saturday. Currently, there is an 18% chance of reaching
100 degrees in Las Vegas on Saturday and a 25% chance on Sunday. If
we do reach 100 it would be the earliest 100 since 2020.

The next large trough of low pressure sets up in the eastern Pacific
by the end of the week. This could bring windier conditions for
later in the weekend. The evolution and timing of this system is
still uncertain so stay tuned for updates throughout the week.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Discounting any potential convection-related wind shifts, wind
direction will be diurnal, with speeds generally below 6 kts. The
persistent rain coupled with cooling temperatures and very light
winds will result in the potential for brief vicinity fog in the Las
Vegas Valley this evening. Light rain and BKN-OVC aoa 1 kft will
continue until around 09Z before cloud cover thins out and bases
increase to aoa 6 kft. Slight chance (20-30 percent) of fog around
the valley early Tuesday around sunrise, but not confident enough to
put into the prevailing TAF. Vicinity showers return to the valley
around 19Z on Tuesday, with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms
that would result in erratic, gusty winds between 20 and 30 kts from
their direction. As the afternoon progresses, thunderstorm chances
will wane, but light shower activity will continue through the
evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Generally light and
diurnal winds expected in the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River
Valley through the TAF period, discounting any convection-related
wind shifts. KBIH will gust from the north-northwest this evening
before gusts fall off tonight, with gusts returning between 25 and
30 kts Tuesday morning. Breezy west winds continue at KDAG overnight
before lightening Tuesday morning. Light rain showers will continue
in Las Vegas through around 09Z, with brief instances of vicinity
fog likely, due to the light wind and cooler temperatures.
Precipitation clears out of the region overnight, with increasing
cloud bases. Due to the light winds, there is a slight chance (20-30
percent) of fog around the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River
Valley Tuesday around sunrise, but not confident enough to put into
the prevailing TAF. Vicinity showers return to the Vegas Valley and
CRV sites Tuesday afternoon with a 30 percent chance of
thunderstorms that would result in erratic, gusty winds between 20
and 30 kts from their direction. As the afternoon progresses,
thunderstorm chances wane, with light shower activity continuing
through the evening.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...Berc
AVIATION...Soulat

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